Yeah, you are right to try to seek what is the more probable answer. But with this question, I think the resurrection is the more likely scenario. How could someone who had those wounds be up and preaching three days later? And why would they choose a woman to see the empty tomb? Women were the least trusted members of society; not because they were actually untrustworthy, but rather because they had a low position in society. So if the resurrection was a lie, why say that women discovered the empty tomb when that would have been rather embarrasing?